Front Porch Focus Group: What 5,300 Voters Told Us About the Fractures in Trump’s Base in Competitive States and Districts

How economic anxiety, tariffs, and government cuts are fracturing Trump's coalition in competitive Congressional districts

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Methodology

We interviewed 5,306 voters by phone and surveyed 2,756 online between April 1-15, 2025 in 19 competitive Congressional districts and 5 Senate states. Voters were selected from registered voter lists with 13 districts currently held by Republicans and 6 by Democrats.

Economic Anxiety is a Bipartisan Reality

Jobs and the economy was the top issue for voters across the partisan spectrum, with tariffs and prices as key concerns

Direction of the Economy

Majority of voters believe the economy is headed in the wrong direction

Direction of Economy Direction of Economy
"

The wipes that I buy for my baby have gone up two dollars. President Trump has been championing a better economy his whole campaign and I hope he backs his promises. I'm not really sure what's going on politically, I just know everything is going up almost every day.

Mallory

White woman in her 20s, Strong Republican, Pennsylvania 10th

"

This tariff stuff is crushing me. The billionaires don't care. They don't need the money. Make sure to put down that this tariff stuff is outrageous.

Caleb

White man in his 30s, Strong Republican, North Carolina 1st

"

He has personally hurt every retiree that's invested in the stock market.

Paul

White man in his 70s, Strong Republican, Michigan 7th

"

He acts like he knows what he's doing, but he's bankrupted every company he's ever run and he's destroying this country.

Miranda

White woman in her 30s, Strong Democrat, Pennsylvania 10th

"

These tariffs are going to kill a lot of people in my opinion, between food and medication.

James

White man in his 20s, Unknown Voter, Colorado 8th

"

Tariffs got people scared and they don't know what to do.

Bruce

White man in his 70s, Strong Democrat, Alaska-AL

"

I was just watching the news about these tariffs. It's like he wants to create a recession on purpose.

Isabelle

Hispanic woman in her 20s, California 45th

"

He only made a turnaround with tariffs because he almost blew everything that quick. I lost $10,000 in a week. (Trump) caused the world to go into a panic.

Marie

White woman in her 60s, Unknown Voter, New York 4th

"

Trump tariffs have screwed everybody.

Kari

White woman in her 50s, Strong Republican, Pennsylvania 10th

"

Increased costs, tariffs are killing small businesses, the quality of life will continue to spiral downwards.

Justen

White man in his 40s, registered Republican/swing voter, California 13th

Topline Approval, But Personal Anxiety

Strong Republicans approve of Trump's economic leadership but are anxious about their personal finances

"

I voted for Trump this time because of the economy and the stimulus from last time–he needs to focus on the Americans who suffer. … He's tone deaf.

Nicole

White woman in her 50s, Leans Republican, Pennsylvania 8th

"

The trade war is (already) affecting us and the tariffs just got put in place.

Lucas

White man in his 30s, Strong Republican, Iowa 1st

"

All this talk about tariffs has definitely affected the stock market negatively, therefore my 401(k) and retirement has suffered.

William

White man in his 40s, Strong Republican, Pennsylvania 10th

"

He has a plan, he's not a dummie, he's financially successful. People just need to listen to his strategies.

Marie

White woman in her 60s, Leans Republican, Pennsylvania 8th

"

I'm anxious (about personal finances). I think long term, things will be better… But the economy is moving in a good direction. The tariffs will be a good thing.

Roger

White man in his 60s, Strong Republican, Pennsylvania 10th

"

The market will be down by the end of the year, and prices will escalate … but things will start improving next year.

Dennis

White man in his 60s, Strong Republican, Iowa 1st

Government is No Longer the Problem

Voters across the partisan spectrum oppose cuts to government programs

Government is No Longer the Problem

Social Security and Veterans are Sacred

Bipartisan agreement on protecting retirement and veteran benefits

Social Security and Veterans are Sacred

Conclusion

Republican members of Congress in these communities should be nervous. Their voters, even their base voters, are anxious and unhappy with the effect of Trump's first 100 days in office.

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