Report

As we begin the march toward November, we have been tuned in to the conversation happening among voters in the most competitive U.S. House districts and states, tracking sentiment since Trump’s return to office. The early indicators from our latest Front Porch Focus Group are that Trump’s coalition in the places that will determine the majorities in the House and Senate have turned against his policies and Congressional allies, a trend that has accelerated over the last year.

The decline in support for the president is showing up in who these battleground voters are backing for Congress.

When looking at 2026 vote choice by the voter’s 2024 presidential preference, we expect to see some level of decline as less tuned in voters who are not paying attention to politics respond. But here, we see that the rate of decline of party-line voting is about 24% for Trump voters v 12% for Harris voters. Perhaps even more telling is that our sample included 1,003 voters we interviewed election night 2024. While Harris and third party voters have the same consistent vote choice from 2024 to 2026, more than 1 in 10 Trump’s 2024 voters are telling us they voted for someone else. (This comes on top of the 24% of people who still tell us they voted for Trump turning away from his Congressional allies.) At the heart of this discontent is growing worry about the economy.

“I’m working 70 hours a week and still struggling.” – Michael Z., Strong Republican, PA-08

“I’m concerned because the price of living nowadays is so high you can barely afford food.” – Female voter, Lean Republican, Georgia

We have seen how these early even year vibes play out before. As early as Trump’s first election in 2016, we learned that the scale and depth of these listening conversations are a reliable indicator of the mood that voters take into the voting booth months later. The question is how these moods will show up in November 2026. There’s more in the full report. Click the button below to read our first Front Porch Focus Group for 2026: “Trump 2.0: Americans Aren’t Buying It (Mostly Because They Can’t Afford it).”

We’ll be bringing you more from this report in the weeks ahead. Look out for briefs on the surprising power of medical debt in predicting voters’ stance on other economic issues and partisan support, how concerns over cuts to the safety net are surprisingly bipartisan, and other insights as this cycle’s campaign kicks into gear. Until then, see you on the doors. – Matt