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The Verdict from the Voters in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
Matt Morrison
06/04/2024
Following last Thursday’s conviction in New York of former President Trump on 34 counts related to falsifying business records, we asked 300 Working America canvass organizers to report back what they heard from voters about the conviction.
In 14,092 face-to-face conversations over two days, fewer than 30 of those canvassers reported any mention of the conviction coming up organically. The handful of people who mentioned the conviction had somewhat predictable responses.
In Tucson, Arizona, Mary, a 62-year-old lawyer, was looking forward to the verdict. Another 60-year-old woman who works as a massage therapist “literally jumped for joy when she shared with [the canvasser] that Trump was convicted.”
In Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, canvassers heard a full range of reactions. One clearly anti-Trump voter said “my friend and I are going boating to celebrate.” A Trump supporter told us the conviction was “another way to rig an election.” We also heard a few responses indicating resignation that the conviction is “not going to change anything, he won’t go to jail.”
In Royal Oak, Michigan, and Brookfield, Wisconsin, the conviction came up only a handful of times with sentiment evenly split.
We will keep a look out for any shifts in opinion, but the immediate feedback is that working class voters in the battleground neighborhoods were not especially moved – an useful reminder that what animates the political class is not the same as what animates the working class.
As we do with all things, we will take a more systematic research-based approach to understanding the political impact of the conviction. Beyond the doors, we are testing how various under-publicized details of the verdict and aftermath (e.g. swing state Haley voters denouncing Trump or losing a case he should have won) impact different pockets of voters’ support for his candidacy. With three other prosecutions pending, Trump’s criminality will continue to garner headlines, so figuring out what details will break through with which voters will help us find a few thousand more battleground state votes in what will be a dead heat.
Until next time, see you on the doors.
Matt